The Swine Crisis Could Lead to a Meat Price Collapse if the Virus Reaches Farms

"The greatest danger is if the plague spreads to farm pigs and slaughtering must begin, as has happened with avian flu." It is a remote possibility, but the swine fever threatening Catalonia for the past few days, which has even led to the deployment of the UME to find infected wild boars, could lead to the closure of export markets and a global trade crisis. "If this happens, there could be a surplus of meat - as animals would have to be slaughtered and sold domestically - and prices would plummet automatically," explain livestock sector sources consulted by this newspaper.

In other words, the alarm being generated at the health level "is not very justified," as the consumption of pork or wild boar "poses no risk to humans," according to experts. The Organisation of Consumers and Users (OCU) reminded in a statement on Tuesday that swine fever is not zoonotic, meaning it is not transmitted to humans either by contact with infected animals or by consuming meat or derivatives. Therefore, the only alarm is at the economic level if the virus reaches farms, "although it is considered unlikely due to the strict biosecurity measures in place."

Data provided by UPA (Union of Small Farmers and Ranchers) reveals that total production in 2024 was 4.9 million tonnes of meat, with an increase of 1.8% compared to the previous year. Thus, Spain consolidated itself as the leading producer of pork in the European Union and third in the world, only behind China and the USA.

Domestic demand is strong, but exports are the sector's main asset, with more than half of the annual production (2.76 million tonnes) sold outside our borders, 1.5 million tonnes to the EU and 1.22 million tonnes to third countries. This significant foreign trade brings the sector revenues that reached €8.1 billion in 2024. However, pork product prices continue to decline, making a new crisis in the sector very difficult for many livestock farms to face. Just a few days ago, prices were around €1.8/kg, but on Monday, the Mercolleida pork price boards, Spain's reference market, concluded in an extraordinary meeting that the price of fattened live pigs fell to €1.21/kg.

Thus, in the worst-case scenario, international trade restrictions on the export of pork derivatives from some region of our country could be established, which could lead to a drop in pork prices in Spain, as the domestic market would have to absorb the unsold meat. In a sector, the pork industry, with prices already very contained this year, it would further damage farmers' finances.

The outbreak perimeter is completely contained to 6 kilometres, so the risk of contagion to farm animals is low, and therefore the negative economic consequences are also low. In figures, the pork sector is the most important in Spanish agribusiness, with Aragon, Catalonia, Castile and León, Andalusia, Murcia, Extremadura, and Castile-La Mancha as the regions where production is located.