The Rope at Its Limit

The announcement by Míriam Nogueras that "the time for change has come" has sounded like a bell tolling and has begun to activate all alarms. Some interpret it as the beginning of the end for the precarious legislature of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Others continue to dismiss the warnings from the former Convergents, seeing them as a recurring drama that lacks credibility and abuses the central government's humiliation. According to this view, these are ultimatums that fuel a narrative of anxiety and nervousness but are ultimately bluffs.

Junts has taken a liking to putting the PSOE-Sumar government on the spot, intimidating and threatening it repeatedly. The question is, what political incentive does Junts have to bring down Sánchez now and pave the way for a potential PP-Vox majority? This is what would undoubtedly be on the table today. If Junts is willing to support a motion of no confidence to oust Sánchez if he does not call elections, a change in La Moncloa is just around the corner.

The party led by Carles Puigdemont has decided to submit a definitive decision to its members, convinced of the crossroads it faces and the repercussions it entails. Puigdemont may feel inclined to oust Sánchez out of resentment, but he must also weigh the consequences. Going to elections, with the left of the PSOE divided, likely opens the door to a PP-Vox majority, which is also an uncomfortable prospect for the separatist movement. Despite pressure from the extremist Alliança Catalana, facilitating the right's rise to power presents a troubling horizon for many Catalan secessionist aspirations. The linguistic issue, for starters, with a PP that has attempted to hinder the recognition of Catalan in European institutions, is quite telling in this regard.

Junts argues that Carles Puigdemont has lost patience and is very upset with Zapatero, whom he believes has been stringing him along as a government interlocutor, merely to delay the process. The former president's main grievance is that Sánchez has not fulfilled his commitments in negotiations. Furthermore, the amnesty is being applied sparingly and faces numerous obstacles. The Supreme Court's prosecutor insists on maintaining the demand for the former president's arrest. His personal situation significantly constrains him, and the government claims it has no initiative in this matter. Puigdemont remains unable to return to Spain, and the social erosion of the 'process' undermines his reactive image. He is left with a flag of protest that garners diminishing support. In this context, pressure from the far-right independence group Alliança Catalana, with its brutal demagogic discourse, also complicates Junts' room for manoeuvre.

Breaking agreements with Sánchez and forcing his departure from government with a motion of no confidence would also have serious repercussions in Catalonia. Junts would disrupt the political board to punish the PSC and PSOE, but in doing so, it would shoot itself in the foot. Polls reveal that Junts voters overwhelmingly prefer Sánchez over Feijóo. This is a significant detail. Moreover, it has been revealed that the government is renegotiating with Germany for support in the official recognition of Catalan in institutions. This initiative aims to appease Junts on a very sensitive issue. It could be a decisive coup that strikes at the heart of the Catalan separatist discourse. If Sánchez succeeds in this area, Junts would find it very difficult to force Sánchez out of power. But with Puigdemont, anything is possible. He always surprises.