Maduro Moves Forward and Expels Diplomats from Seven American Countries for "Interference"

The social and political situation in Venezuela deteriorates by the hour as Nicolás Maduro moves forward. In addition to street repression, which has already caused several deaths, there is now a strategy of opposition against all countries that the re-elected leader considers executioners or, at the very least, judges of his victory.

In an unprecedented decision, he has ordered the expulsion of diplomats from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay from Venezuelan soil. These governments are accused of "interference" in national affairs for having demanded a review of the vote count from Sunday's elections. The Chavista leader has also ordered that commercial flights with Panama and the Dominican Republic be suspended starting Wednesday, a measure that will punish thousands of citizens who frequently use low-cost airlines.

The re-elected president has also taken measures against Spain. Minor ones. He has removed Spain from his round of acknowledgments to foreign governments supporting his victory (including Cuba, Bolivia, Honduras, Russia, and Serbia). This acknowledgment previously included a link to a press conference by Vice President Yolanda Díaz, in which she expressed her recognition of the election results. "This is what democrats do around the world," she said, although she also called for "transparency" amid doubts. Her cabinet colleague, Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares, was more stringent and called for the publication of all electoral records "table by table" for verification purposes.

The two main focal points at this moment are the United States and the OAS. The Permanent Council of the Organization of American States has called an urgent meeting on Wednesday at the request of twelve member countries. This body has yet to comment on the elections in Venezuela or on international community pressure to review the process. The requesting governments aim for a statement to be issued in "safeguard" of Venezuelans' rights and in defense of "democratic stability" in the American region.

The other focal point is the U.S., and both are intertwined given Washington's influence in Latin America. The White House is evaluating its next steps, especially following the start of a repression that has caused between two and seven deaths and about fifty detentions in Venezuela. The disturbances recorded since Monday could be just a prelude to an unpredictable conflict. The opposition claims to possess electoral data confirming a significant victory for their candidate, Edmundo González, which they do not intend to relinquish. Maduro has already warned that he is not willing to review the election day results and has ordered police and military forces to act against street mobilizations.

U.S. President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak on Tuesday with his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, about the Venezuelan crisis. Lula is the only foreign leader who has had access to Maduro besides those who have shown support for his electoral victory. The Brazilian head of state recently expressed his "shock" at Maduro's reference to a "bloodbath" if he lost at the polls. He has asked for proof of Maduro's victory and arranged for former Chancellor Celso Amorim to meet with Maduro in Caracas.

Biden wants to hear Lula's impressions about the situation. Their conversation is scheduled for 2:30 PM (8:30 PM in Spain). A public statement from Biden is expected afterward (several members of his cabinet, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have already spoken).

There remains uncertainty about whether the Venezuelan Parliament will publish electoral records. The National Electoral Commission has promised to post results from each of the 30,000 voting tables online. The opposition, led by María Corina Machado, is also disseminating 73.2% of its records online and locally across the country, showing an overwhelming victory for their candidate Edmundo González.

The U.S. president has a particular interest in this conflict. The U.S. was one of the main actors pushing for these elections and is thus one of those most committed to ensuring their integrity. Less than three months ago, Maduro conveyed to Biden that he was willing "to dialogue with everyone." Today he risks Washington intensifying sanctions and causing Venezuela's economy—currently experiencing a slight uptick—to collapse again.

Similarly, Biden faces the possibility that this crisis will become another thorny issue in his foreign policy agenda. Besides dealing with the war in Ukraine and Israel's operation in Gaza—a conflict that could result in civilian casualties—an unpredictable future with Maduro's regime represents another burden until his presidency ends in January.

U.S. Republicans have already begun accusing Biden over his handling of relations with the Chavista government while seeking democratic elections. Caracas' recent statement against international figures questioning the elections does not help either. The message rejects "the interfering actions and statements by a group of right-wing governments subordinated to Washington and openly committed to sordid ideological tenets of international fascism that seek to undermine electoral results."

The Venezuelan government specifically refers to the seven countries whose diplomatic missions it has decided to expel. The order is "immediate" and raises deep concerns about how far Maduro is willing to go in defending his position and "the inalienable right to self-determination."

"Typical of Dictatorial Regimes"

Costa Rica lacks a diplomatic mission in Caracas; thus, its expulsion does not affect their relationship significantly. Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic government has not commented yet. Peru's response has been most forceful so far; it ordered reciprocal expulsion of Venezuelan diplomats "within no more than 72 hours" in response to "the grave and arbitrary decisions taken today by the Venezuelan regime."

Panama has decided to put its relations with Caracas "on hold," while Chilean Foreign Minister Alberto Van Klaveren described Maduro's decision on Tuesday as "typical of dictatorial regimes." He added: "I don't recall any measure like this before; it reveals how isolated the Venezuelan government is." Uruguayan authorities have also labeled it an "untimely" and "unjustified" decision.

Argentina's government described the situation as "unprecedented," arguing it would leave hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants disconnected from their own country and in administrative limbo. "A break with Caracas would be another absurdity we are getting used to with Maduro."

It so happens that six leaders from María Corina Machado's party have been sheltered at Argentina's embassy in Caracas since late March due to suspicions they were part of Chavista-led opposition raids before the election campaign began. On Monday, police officers and Maduro supporters surrounded the embassy; however, hundreds of citizens immediately gathered there to prevent any potential assault. "We greatly appreciate all Venezuelans who came out to defend our embassy against dictator Maduro's threats," wrote Argentine Foreign Minister Diana Mondino on her social media profile.