Carlos Alcaraz's Path to Number One and ATP Finals Semifinals

The Jimmy Connors Group reaches its conclusion this Thursday with everything still to play for. The day will begin at 2:00 PM with the match between American Taylor Fritz and Australian Alex de Miñaur. Later, with that result in hand, it will be time for the clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Italian Lorenzo Musetti, which will close the group stage.

All four players still have a chance to reach the semifinals, though they also risk elimination. Even Alcaraz, who has an advantage, could be eliminated in an extreme scenario.

The Murcian leads the standings with two victories and a 4-1 set record, followed by Fritz (1-1 and 3-2) and Musetti (1-1 and 2-3). De Miñaur is at the bottom, without wins (0-2) and a 1-4 set record.

For the Spaniard, the calculations are simple: winning one set guarantees him a spot in Saturday's semifinals. If De Miñaur wins the first match, Alcaraz would qualify even before stepping onto the court. Additionally, if he defeats Musetti, he would top the group.

His only threat is a straight-set loss combined with a prior three-set victory by Fritz over De Miñaur, the only combination that would eliminate him.

Beyond reaching the semifinals, Alcaraz is pursuing a greater goal: finishing the year as the world number one. To achieve this, he needs to secure his place in the final rounds and eliminate Italian Jannik Sinner's chances, who is still in the running. The player from San Candido faces Alexander Zverev tonight and will conclude the group stage on Friday against American Ben Shelton.

1 - Alcaraz defeats Musetti and Fritz beats De Miñaur: Alcaraz 1st and Fritz 2nd

2 - Alcaraz loses to Musetti and De Miñaur beats Fritz: Musetti 1st and Alcaraz 2nd

3 - Alcaraz defeats Musetti in 2 sets and De Miñaur beats Fritz in 2 sets: Alcaraz 1st and De Miñaur 2nd

4 - Alcaraz defeats Musetti in 2 sets and De Miñaur beats Fritz in 3 sets: Alcaraz 1st and Fritz 2nd

5 - Alcaraz defeats Musetti in 3 sets and De Miñaur beats Fritz in 2 sets: Alcaraz 1st and De Miñaur 2nd

6 - Alcaraz defeats Musetti in 3 sets and De Miñaur beats Fritz in 3 sets: Alcaraz 1st and Fritz 2nd

7 - Alcaraz loses to Musetti in 2 sets and Fritz beats De Miñaur in 2 sets: Fritz 1st and Musetti 2nd

8 - Alcaraz loses to Musetti in 2 sets and Fritz beats De Miñaur in 3 sets: Fritz 1st and Musetti 2nd

9 - Alcaraz loses to Musetti in 3 sets and Fritz beats De Miñaur in 2 sets: Fritz 1st and Alcaraz 2nd

10 - Alcaraz loses to Musetti in 3 sets and Fritz beats De Miñaur in 3 sets: Alcaraz 1st and Fritz 2nd.