A Volcano Against the Powers of the King of Europe

A volcano with destructive potential akin to Vesuvius will test those "special powers" once mentioned by the late Toni Kroos, which have helped establish Real Madrid as the undisputed king of Europe with its fifteen titles. The Chamartín team visits the Metropolitano, an impregnable fortress in the continental competition's knockout stages, aiming to escape unscathed from the red-and-white fire and reach the quarter-finals for the fortieth time since the old European Cup was born.

The whites have the 2-1 first-leg advantage, the acknowledged hierarchy in a competition they master like no other, and a talent-laden squad that doesn't always match effort with ability. However, Atlético will rely on the push from a never-say-die fanbase to try and exorcise the demons that haunt them whenever they face their neighbours in the tournament, keeping alive the dream of finally claiming a throne that has eluded them.

Atlético has accumulated eight victories in the last nine Champions League matches played at their San Blas-Canillejas stronghold, with the 1-3 defeat to Lille in the current edition's group stage being the only blemish in a streak that claimed Leipzig, Slovan, Leverkusen, Feyenoord, Celtic, Lazio, Inter, and Dortmund as victims. Three of the results during this intimidating series would give Cholo's troops a direct pass to the quarter-finals, while the other five would send the tie into extra time.

Such a dynamic is far from the only numerical argument supporting Simeone's army's aspirations. History also shows that Atlético has emerged victorious in eleven of the seventeen Champions League ties where they faced the second leg at home after losing the first leg by a single goal. Three of those comebacks, against Leverkusen in 2015, Barça in 2016, and Inter in 2024, serve as special references, having been achieved in the Simeone era, although he couldn't work the miracle in 2022, despite coming close against a Manchester City that withstood the red-and-white onslaughts.

In contrast, Atlético has only defeated Real Madrid in three of the nine visits made by the Chamartín squad to the Metropolitano, with the most recent victory, achieved in extra time during a Copa del Rey 2023-24 round of 16 clash, not being enough this time to secure passage for a team that must significantly improve the figures from a week ago at the Bernabéu.

Despite offering better sensations than Real Madrid for an hour, Atlético only surpassed the whites in two areas: kilometres covered (114.3 compared to 105.6) and saves made by the goalkeeper (five by Oblak to one by Courtois). Carlo Ancelotti's pupils had more possession, took more shots, executed more attacks, won more corners, completed more passes, and were also more efficient in recovering the ball. Despite this, no revolution is expected from Cholo, who must better adjust a left flank where Rodrygo caused Galán much trouble and needs to recover a downcast Griezmann. However, he trusts Julián Álvarez to maintain his streak against a Madrid side he has scored twice against in as many appearances in the red-and-white shirt and who also tormented Ancelotti's men when wearing the City jersey.

Avoiding new stings from the Spider is one of the purposes with which the reigning European champion will appear at the Metropolitano, arriving forewarned. Of the ten matches where they faced the second leg of a European Cup tie away after winning with a one-goal margin at the Bernabéu, Real Madrid secured passage on six occasions and fell in the other four, with the statistic being particularly dangerous for their interests in the Champions era: four eliminations out of five.

Of course, the Chamartín side can also see the glass half full, given that Real Madrid has overcome 21 of the last 22 ties where they won the first leg, with Ajax in the 2018-19 campaign being the only team capable of overturning a tie within that period, and at the Bernabéu no less.

Ancelotti, who regains personnel with the return of Courtois and Rüdiger, will once again entrust the right-back position to Valverde, who has gone from being a stopgap in that position to becoming a supernova. The Italian also has Bellingham, a versatile tool he couldn't utilise a week ago at the Bernabéu, leaving a nuclear decision in the coach's hands: to opt for Camavinga's muscle, Modric's brains, or even Brahim's imagination as a complement to an empowered Tchouaméni in the engine room. This decision largely determines the neuromotor development of a king who doesn't want to see the Metropolitano flames melt his crown.

Atlético: Oblak, Llorente, Giménez, Le Normand, Galán, Giuliano, De Paul, Barrios, Lino, Griezmann, and Julián Álvarez.

Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Rüdiger, Mendy, Tchouaméni, Modric, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Mbappé, and Vinicius.

Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland).

Time: 21:00 h.

Stadium: Metropolitano.

TV: Movistar Liga de Campeones.