The Venezuela Loop

The deep crisis in Venezuela has become a domestic political issue, a fierce battle of the PP against Pedro Sánchez, whom they want to present as an autocrat with a hyperventilated opposition style to erode his image. The approval of the Congress declaration recognizing Edmundo González's victory and his status as president constitutes an important political and symbolic move beyond that tactical dimension and the setback for the Government it has implied.

But the words of Defense Minister Margarita Robles, who called Venezuela "a dictatorship," have underscored a matter of principles, weakening the containment efforts of Minister Albares not to burn all bridges. Realpolitik contains these paradoxes between ethics and the sense of opportunity. China is not a democratic model either, yet European leaders' rhetoric is always restrained in this regard.

Events may accelerate. Maduro needs a scapegoat, and the ultranationalist recourse of an external enemy usually works quite successfully. Especially if it involves "the Spaniards," with references to colonial conquest that serve as a topical resource to hide the shortcomings of a policy that persecutes half of the Venezuelan population in what is presented as a Manichean crusade "against fascism and the far-right."

We may be on the brink of a new scenario where all relations - diplomatic, economic, and commercial - are severed, with many sectors affected if the regime's bravado is fulfilled. But all this, and the PP's determination to wear down Sánchez with state affairs, can distract from the core issue: the severe moral breakdown that has occurred in the Latin American country, with so many ties to Spain, after Maduro's regime entrenched itself following the July elections and the shadow of possible electoral fraud.

The expectations generated for a possible pragmatic evolution of the Chavista system have come crashing down, and the disappointment in sectors of the Latin American left is very telling. Just look at the brave and active role of Chilean President Gabriel Boric in this debate. Moreover, Venezuela is a highly sensitive geopolitical piece, with oil as its trump card.

The only feasible way out of this labyrinth would be through a peaceful and negotiated Transition that avoids a civil conflict ending in violence and bloodshed that no one wants. The role of Spain and the European Union, beyond grandstanding, seems crucial. The dilemma is: either Venezuela ends up like Nicaragua or a negotiated solution is worked out.

Chavismo has entrenched itself in retaliation but global isolation should make it 'move.' Returning to the democratic dynamics of the Barbados agreement would be the point everyone should return to if they don't want to slide towards a suicidal drift. What unfolds in the coming weeks will portray a standoff. But the only way out is negotiating a process to overcome the current system, with new elections on the horizon but clean and guaranteed.

The alternative -the return of international sanctions- could end up being more than punishment; it could be an endorsement for the bunker in its forward escape and its bet on persecuting dissent and violating human rights.

Venezuela's geopolitical and economic interests make it appealing on the international stage, where an enormous game for influence is being played. And this forces us to look at that country not just from a moral and democratic solidarity perspective, although that is most relevant.

PP and PSOE should share a state responsibility strategy. If all democratic expectations are closed off, Venezuelan citizens and their eight million exiles will pay first. But eventually, we will all pay.