"In this New World, the EU Will Lose, and Within the EU, Spain"

Cultivating a journalism that escapes the latest political soundbite, Esteban Hernández (Madrid, 1965) seeks to discern the ideological, technological, cultural, and economic trends that truly drive the world. The behaviour of elites, the decline of the middle classes, and the rise of populism are some of the themes explored by Hernández, author of books such as 'The Perverted Time: Right and Left in the 21st Century', 'This is How it All Begins', and 'The Heart of the Present: Map of an Unknown Society'. A political correspondent for El Confidencial and one of the most insightful analysts of national and global ideological shifts, he now publishes 'The New Spirit of the World: Politics and Geopolitics in the Trump Era' (Deusto).

"Trump is not a messiah, and his rise can be explained by two factors: the decline of U.S. power globally and the growing discontent among its population," Hernández explains. He highlights that in an era where grand political utopias, major ideals (both religious and otherwise), and personal self-realisation have faded, "the space for reaction is national." "When a large portion of the population sees promises broken, a figure like Trump attracts people with the notion of making America great again. In reality, he is telling Americans that they will prosper," the author notes, praising the U.S. president's ability to unite two seemingly opposing ideas, "right-wing and change."

Hernández argues that the traditional U.S. elites long viewed Trump with disdain, and "this resentment from being scorned is what has now allowed him to connect with a significant number of voters. In some way, he saw the same disdain he had suffered in the eyes of U.S. citizens," a nation divided between "globally connected elites" and "a large segment of the population facing an uncertain future." "In this context, votes are cast not for an inspiring vision of the country, but 'against' something, and Trump has capitalised on this," the writer emphasises, also focusing on technological change. "One cannot understand Trumpism without seeing how major tech magnates have supported him," he insists.

Yet even here, Hernández makes a distinction: "Companies that manufacture goods, like Apple or Tesla, are more hesitant about conflict with China, as opposed to those reliant on algorithms, like Airbnb or Uber, which do not require integration with China and have been the most supportive of Trump."

A significant part of the current confusion is explained by the globalisation process over recent decades. "A group has concentrated resources while the rest of society has seen a decline in living standards. People with stable lives have both a salary and income. This has weakened the middle classes," Hernández asserts.

And when discussing globalisation, China is in the background. "In a confrontation with China, there are areas where the U.S. cannot win. Therefore, the U.S. wants its allies to distance themselves from China in technology and armaments. It will be difficult for us to say no to the Americans," Hernández suggests, recalling that historically, when great empires have begun to decline, "they have tried to gain ground at the expense of their own allies." "Hence the tariffs: we will pay part of the U.S. bill," he points out.

In this context, Hernández is not overly optimistic about Spain's ability to adapt to a new era. "We are in a secondary position. The major players are the U.S. and China, followed by others like India, Turkey, or the Persian Gulf. The axis has shifted towards the Pacific, leaving the European Union out of play, where there are two major powers, Germany and France, along with Great Britain, if considered part of Europe. In this new era, Europe will lose, and within Europe, Spain will lose," he states.

"The problem with the EU," Hernández continues, "is that in a moment of urgency, it cannot define its position as a territory. The EU is not a country; it has many sometimes divergent voices, there is no common foreign policy, and this makes negotiating with the U.S., which exploits internal division, very difficult."