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Zigor Aldama
Miércoles, 30 de octubre 2024, 11:01
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The access to housing has become an increasingly controversial topic in Spain. Considered both a right and a market good, it is evident that it is becoming more unaffordable for a growing number of people, especially those under 40. The decline in purchasing power since the 2008 crisis - more pronounced after the inflation wave following the pandemic - combined with factors that have increased demand - from the explosion of tourist apartments to immigration, including the rise of solo living - have further complicated a situation that no legislation will solve. The only successful way is through the mass construction of public housing for social rent. Everything else will be mere patches with little chance of achieving their goal.
But Spain is not an exceptional case. Housing is becoming less affordable worldwide. In fact, our country is not particularly expensive. Both in absolute numbers and in relation to salaries. According to various studies - all with notable shortcomings, but valid for broadly reflecting what is happening - Spain appears in the middle of both tables.
Therefore, today we focus on the difficulties faced worldwide to find a roof to shelter under.
These are the two topics we will address today:
The global nightmare of the real estate sector.
The war in Ukraine is also fought between Chinese and European airlines.
There are two ways to measure if housing in a specific territory is expensive or not: in nominal values, considering only the price, and in relative terms, comparing it with the population's salaries. In the first table, Hong Kong is, indisputably, the most expensive region on the planet. On average, a two-bedroom apartment in the center of the former British colony costs more than one and a half million euros. It is followed by another Asian country, Singapore, slightly above one million euros. Switzerland, South Korea, and Luxembourg close the 'top 5', always above half a million. At the opposite end is Egypt, where you can buy that apartment for less than 30,000 euros. Spain appears in the middle of the table with an average price of 176,000 euros.
This absolute variable, in hard euros, may be interesting for analyzing foreign investment in each country's real estate sector, but it is of little use in determining if housing is accessible to the local population. In Bali, for example, more and more locals complain about the growing gentrification brought by digital nomads. There you can find a villa with magnificent views for less than 200,000 euros, a more than reasonable price for a European, but unattainable for the inhabitants of Indonesia, where the average salary is around 10,000 euros per year.
Something similar happens with Spain: it offers very reasonable prices for investors - and here retirees can also be included - from countries with higher purchasing power - all of central and northwestern Europe, the United States, and Canada - as well as for the wealthy population of the developing world - China, Russia, India... - who seek a safe place to store their money and, if the 'golden visa' is offered, also a residence permit.
Therefore, it is essential to make the ranking comparing housing prices with the population's salaries. The result will always be imprecise because averages are usually used that do not reflect the particular situation of many people. But they serve as a reference. And, believe it or not, Spain appears in 33rd place in the table of the 50 countries where housing is most accessible: a 100 square meter apartment costs 15.2 years of the full average salary.
Curiously, the ranking of countries with the most prohibitive housing is led by some developing ones: in Ghana, it is impossible to access a decent one, as it takes 149 years of the full average salary for that apartment, while in Sri Lanka or Hong Kong, it exceeds 70 years. Logically, the key to some being able to afford it lies in the margins outside the average and also in inheritances and family support that cushion the blow. That last point explains, for example, that China, where more than 46 years of full salary are needed to access that 100 square meter apartment, has one of the highest homeownership rates in the world.
And from that giant, we could copy a measure to avoid at least part of the speculation: foreigners can only acquire one home, and only to reside in it. It may seem like a very communist initiative, and perhaps it is, but it has served to protect the country from foreign vultures. The country already has enough with the locals. In any case, it is always appropriate to put problems in context to measure them fairly and seek solutions that have not been considered.
The Air China CA908 flight links Madrid and Beijing in just ten and a half hours. If Iberia wanted to operate the same route, however, it would take at least an hour and a half longer. And it's not because it uses a slower plane. The reason is purely geopolitical: as a reprisal for the sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, European airlines cannot fly over its territory.
The detour translates into an average of an hour and a half extra to connect Europe and China or Northeast Asia. And that can be measured in hard cash: around 15,000 euros more in fuel per flight, plus the extra cost of maintenance and personnel, as well as the headaches that complying with the stipulated rest periods for the crew can cause.
European companies have begun to eliminate routes with China (Iberia no longer operates the flight to Shanghai, for example, while China Eastern does) and accuse their Chinese counterparts of unfair competition. It is a conflict that highlights two things: the side effects of the imposed sanctions, and the geopolitical asymmetry they cause. Should the principle of reciprocity be imposed? Should the same be done as with tariffs in trade relations?
KLM thinks so. Its CEO, Marjan Rintel, stated on Dutch television that the EU should take measures to ensure all airlines play by the same rules. He was not very clear about what he specifically proposes, and some have interpreted that he even considers the veto of Chinese airlines in European territory legitimate, although everything points to him referring to imposing some type of fee that, following the principle of tariffs, equates ticket prices. That, in any case, would not detract from the appeal of arriving earlier at the destination, which only the lines of the Asian giant have.
This is a good example of how China's pragmatic attitude benefits it economically. It does not support the invasion of Ukraine, but neither does it condemn it. And that allows it to acquire Russian fuels at bargain prices and sell Russia everything it might need. In troubled waters, China gains.
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