Facing the 'Disorder'

Podemos' role has become a veritable mine adrift that could ultimately destabilise the legislature and complicate the play of Pedro Sánchez's left-wing allies. The true Achilles' heel will not be in the governance questioned day in and day out from Congress by Miriam Nogueras, nor by Gabriel Rufián's aggressive rhetoric. Initially, Podemos and other plurinational left parties, such as Compromís, have decided to overturn the agreement between Junts and the PSOE, which greenlights the delegation of immigration competencies to the Generalitat of Catalonia, deeming it "racist." This forebodes a very complicated process where negotiation enters a shifting, sinuous terrain fraught with prejudices. The purples justify rejecting the law on an alleged 'xenophobic' condition of the formation led by Carles Puigdemont, who resists supporting a motion of no confidence against the ultra-nationalist Sílvia Orriolls, leader of the Aliança Catalana and mayor of Ripoll.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will have to make a significant effort to try to convince the formation led by Ione Belarra, which has concluded that radicalisation is one of the existential reasons that could guarantee their survival in a political space where there has been an evident shrinkage of spaces. Podemos' strategy involves delegitimising Sumar as an autonomous project and caricaturing it as subordinate to the PSOE. Paradoxically, Junts has already announced its veto of Vice President Yolanda Díaz's proposal to reduce working hours, the emblematic measure of the Labour Minister that may have to be shelved due to lack of support. Junts once again represents the link with the business world, a mission historically held by CiU before the 'procés' erupted. Now, however, vetoes arise everywhere.

Podemos emerged as a strong jolt to the Spanish political board, expressing a tectonic movement of discontent and unrest from the 'indignados' of 2015. That sociological earthquake became a political change engine that altered the traditional left board and forced a generational shift in the PSOE and the first coalition governments in democracy, first with Unidas Podemos and then with Sumar.

Pablo Iglesias, still an undisputed reference, has considered that their true electoral objective, the real adversary, is not the right that demonises them but the socialists of Sánchez who take voters with the lure of the useful vote. The negotiation of the Budgets will once again be a Kafkaesque exercise, a negotiation on the brink that will portray this strategy.

In what context will this battle be fought within the social left? In a context absolutely conditioned by polarisation and the new emerging 'disorder' in the world following the forced realignment between the US and Russia, while a humiliated Europe and Ukraine plead for a seat at a potential negotiation table to end the war.

The definition of a new defence model, in which Europe should allocate up to 800 billion euros to rearmament and security programmes, expresses a new paradigm starting from the realisation that the US is no longer a reliable ally. Continental Europe seeks energy and strategic autonomy, but knowing that at some point it will have to assume costly military expenses that could unbalance its accounts. The premise elicits a radical rejection in the world of Podemos, which exploits the majority anti-war sentiment very present in a significant segment of Spanish society. A critique of the dominant line in European 'elites' that illustrates the harshness of the ideological conflict in the families of European 'progressivism.'

Podemos' permanent disassociation on such a crucial issue as Defence spending, in a critical juncture where Europe's being or not being is at stake, is a test of maturity for the investiture bloc. That there is a space to the left of the PSOE is a sociological and political reality, beyond the representation it may have.