Early Warning Systems: When Your Mobile Can Save Your Life

Suddenly, the mobile emits a loud beep at maximum volume. It doesn't matter if it's on silent. A second later, it vibrates. A warning message appears on the screen: you are in danger and must take immediate action. This is how people in Ukraine learn about an imminent bombing, in Japan about a recent earthquake, in Thailand about a tsunami threat - although the system will be fully operational early next year - and in the United States about an approaching hurricane capable of causing a tragedy.

In Spain, the ES-Alert system is used, in the words of a spokesperson from the Ministry of the Interior, "for sending relevant civil protection alerts to the affected population via mobile devices." In other words, to warn citizens that they are in grave danger for any reason. A DANA like the one that has devastated numerous Levantine towns, for example.

"The system is based on the principle of the need for the population to act. Relevant alerts will be sent when recipients must take active protection measures," explain officials from the Interior Ministry, to which Civil Protection belongs. Something similar happens worldwide: Ukrainians are asked to find the nearest air raid shelter, Japanese or Thais to move away from the coast and access a high place, and Americans to leave their town or shelter in the basement.

The warning is also broadcast through the media and, if available, using the local speaker network. In China, for example, the siren is tested every year during the National Defense Education Day, which coincides with the anniversary of the start of the Japanese invasion. And in numerous schools, evacuation drills are conducted.

The operation of this 'reverse 112' is technically simple. In Spain, the competent authorities declare an emergency, determine its severity - the General State Emergency Plan establishes three levels, of which only the two mildest can be deactivated on mobiles - draft the message content, delimit the territory where it will be broadcast, and the phone operators transmit it by radio to all mobiles connected to the towers in the area, regardless of where they are registered and without knowing the phone number or user identity. That's why it's also sent in other languages.

More complicated - and controversial - is the process prior to the decision to send the alert. "The competence is territorial, and the regional civil protection bodies are responsible for establishing the alert parameters - affected area, message text, emission time - and issuing it following their internal procedures, without intervention from the Ministry of the Interior," point out government sources, aware of the debate generated by the delay in activating the system in Valencia.

Institutions like the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) or the hydrographic confederations provide data automatically and declare alert levels, but the decision to press the red button lies with the regional government. "The Emergency Centers are the bodies responsible for citizen alerts. They centralize all information from different official bodies, and it is with the cross-analysis of all data that decisions are made," explains the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation, defending itself from criticism by recalling that it is not competent to send alerts.

Maider Larrañaga is the head of the Basque Country Emergency Coordination Center. The body responsible for using the ES-alert system in case a catastrophe occurs in Euskadi, a situation they have never had to face. "The decision would be made at the crisis table created when it is expected that numerous damages will occur. It is composed of technicians from different organizations and politicians," she explains. "In the case of Euskadi, we have an advantage because the meteorological service is integrated into the emergency center, and we not only consider variables like precipitation volume. The expected impact is also included. Because it is not the same for it to rain heavily after a prolonged dry period as it is after continuous rain," she comments. However, Larrañaga emphasizes that "meteorology is not an exact science, but it is based on predictions that, although increasingly accurate, can fail."

In the event that a generalized alert to mobiles is necessary - because it is not always required when the red alert is activated - the political leader would have the final say. "One person would draft the message and another would approve it, because it cannot be taken lightly," adds Larrañaga, stressing the importance of speed in decision-making. Although she does not want to enter the political controversy, the delay is the main criticism directed at Carlos Mazón's government.

In Japan, however, some alerts are fully automated. Earthquake alerts, for example: from the moment a seismograph records a substantial tremor, a precursor to the most devastating seismic waves, only 15 seconds pass before the alarm reaches citizens and the media. The 'Shake alert' in the United States works similarly, covering 50 million people and managed by the country's geological service. In this case, the alert also reaches automatic systems. "It can slow down trains, close water valves, or start emergency generators, among other things," explains the USGS. Every second counts, as the earthquake advances 4 kilometers in that time. Something similar happens with tsunamis generated after earthquakes, which can travel at speeds exceeding 650 kilometers per hour.

But the World Economic Forum (WEF) emphasizes that technology is only one of the three pillars on which Japan's early warning system, considered the most advanced in the world, is based. In 2015, it amazed with its ability to predict a typhoon two weeks in advance. The other two are precisely the training of institutions and collaboration with citizens at different levels and scales.

Chitresh Saraswat, a specialist in climate adaptation systems, and Eric White, director of system adaptation at the WEF, state that "technological advances to detect catastrophic events in advance, using supercomputers, meteorological satellites, and radars" are key to success, but equally important are "the coordination of the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional authorities to ensure that information spreads quickly and evacuations are smooth," as well as training the population to act correctly when receiving the warning. It is of little use for the alert to arrive if people then go down to the garage to get their car.

These systems have a clear and resounding impact. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that they can reduce material damage caused by a natural disaster by 30%. That amounts to between 3,000 and 16,000 million dollars a year. In Japan, they have compared the response in the 1950s and 1960s with the current one and calculated that early warning reduces the number of deaths by 97% and the economic impact by 21%.

Meanwhile, a study by the University of Michigan analyzed 6,000 alerts sent by geolocation to 17 million mobiles in Ukraine and concluded that they reduced deaths in the first months of the Russian invasion by 45%. But it also found that, due to their repetitive nature, they lost effectiveness over time as the population became accustomed to receiving them. In fact, the authors emphasize that between 8% and 15% of deaths could have been avoided if the victims had followed the recommendations.

"There has to be a balance. Activating many red alerts without subsequent damage can lead to a 'Peter and the Wolf' situation and people not acting," analyzes Larrañaga. Therefore, and because warnings can cause economic harm, it is recommended to send them with caution. "Fortunately, it does not seem that this fatigue is irreversible. On those days when the Ukrainian government made special announcements about the course of the war, people responded more to the alerts," said one of the authors of the Michigan study, David Van Dijcke.

The importance of the population paying attention to alarms will become increasingly significant, as natural disasters are expected to increase. "As a consequence of global warming, we have more energy available in the climate system. In the oceans and the atmosphere. And this translates into greater intensity of extreme phenomena, but also greater frequency. It is vital to adapt to these phenomena, respecting flood zones, for example, and improving early warnings," analyze experts from AEMET.

Statistics leave no room for doubt: between 1970 and 2019, natural disasters worldwide have multiplied by five. And, according to the United Nations, the number of people who have had to be evacuated from their homes has increased from 188 million in 2015 to 307 million in 2021. "An analysis of what happened in Valencia will have to be done, and we will all learn from the mistakes to provide a better response," says Larrañaga. "We also need to work more on training and raising awareness among citizens," she concludes.

Any phone with coverage will receive the most severe alerts affecting the area it is in, regardless of its settings. However, emergency centers also have 'apps' for citizens to receive lower-risk warnings.

Adverse weather phenomena but whose risk is limited to specific activities. Stay attentive to the forecast.

Significant meteorological risk. Material damage is expected, and people's physical integrity is at risk, requiring extreme caution.

Extreme risk due to exceptionally intense phenomena. High material damage is expected, and the population is in danger. Follow the authorities' instructions.