Champions League Scenarios for the Final Matchday

The Champions League group stage reaches its final matchday with many uncertainties to resolve. So far, only Liverpool and Barcelona have secured their direct passage to the round of 16. Meanwhile, 16 teams have already guaranteed their place in the playoffs, where they will seek to bypass this phase and advance directly to the round of 16. Meanwhile, nine teams, including PSG and Manchester City, are fighting for the last six available playoff spots.

UEFA's format, designed to avoid inconsequential matches, is working. This Wednesday, January 29, the remaining 18 matches will be played simultaneously, with almost all teams having something at stake, except for the nine that are already eliminated, including Girona.

Real Madrid secured their playoff spot yesterday with a resounding 5-1 victory over Salzburg. However, their direct qualification to the round of 16 seems very complicated. According to Opta's index, the team has only a 3% chance of advancing directly. To achieve this, they must defeat Brest, who are one point ahead in the standings, and hope for a favorable combination of results. Even with a win, the goal difference could work against them.

Barcelona, already qualified for the round of 16, has the opportunity to secure the first or second place, which would allow them to play all knockout rounds with the second leg at home. A draw against Atalanta could be enough thanks to their better goal average compared to their rivals. Additionally, they could reach the top if Liverpool loses and Flick's team secures a victory.

Atlético Madrid is close to sealing their passage to the round of 16. A victory against Salzburg would qualify them, while a draw could also be sufficient depending on other results.

Manchester City faces everything in the final matchday. Although they are currently out of the competition, they depend on themselves: a victory against Bruges, who are also fighting for their qualification, would grant them access to the playoffs. According to Opta, City has a 63.8% chance of qualifying.

Meanwhile, PSG, after yesterday's comeback , is currently in the playoffs. A victory would secure their passage, but even a draw would be enough, as they would reach 11 points and have a better goal difference than Stuttgart and Benfica.