End of Campaign: A Frightening or Fatal Finale in the United States

Last week of campaigning in the United States. A fright or fatal finale. It's Halloween. The exceptional situation created by the balance between the Democratic and Republican candidates leads to an unprecedented and frantic climax, pushing both parties' teams to be more ingenious than ever in search of a seemingly impossible vote margin.

Both parties have hired legions of analysts and strategists for this campaign finale. Experts are studying the 36 million early votes cast by Americans, looking for elements or patterns to exploit in the next eight days to gain an advantage over the opponent. For instance, Trump is effectively capitalizing on citizens' discontent with inflation, Biden's low popularity, and a sense that he has disappointed and set the country back with his policies. Hence, on Saturday, he launched a new campaign finale argument; Democrats are turning the U.S. into a "dumpster."

In Kamala Harris's case, her team has noticed the resentment stirred by the Republican leader's authoritarian manner and promises. Therefore, the candidate, along with her running mate Tim Walz, Hillary Clinton, and Michelle Obama, have adopted in recent days the rhetoric comparing Trump to Hitler and fascism. Nothing is automatic.

Analysis groups focus on early voting to calculate early mobilization rates in Republican and Democratic strongholds. They scrutinize the impact of rallies on the population. If Harris speaks in a North Carolina city and subsequently the pace of postal or in-person voting increases there, they know she has struck a chord and something in her speech resonated deeply. The same applies to the magnate.

Therefore, this weekend's mega-rallies, with Michelle Obama accompanying Biden's successor in Kalamazoo (Michigan) and Trump appearing last night at Madison Square Garden in New York, could translate into a feast of ballots. And a goldmine for electoral data mining.

In Kalamazoo, Harris continued the trend of the last four days of filling large venues. Neither she nor the former first lady held back in defining the Republican leader as an individual who "has become more confused, more unstable, and angrier, and it is clear he has become increasingly deranged." Both focused the main content of their speeches on women and their health rights; an issue in which the Democratic Party hopes to steal the vote of more moderate Republican women from Trump. Michelle Obama was very direct on this matter. She urged women to vote regardless of ideology or what the men in their families think. "I ask you from the bottom of my heart to take our lives seriously," she stated. "We need you to vote for the only candidate in this race who will protect our lives."

Trump, for his part, ensured that the 19,500 seats at Madison Square Garden were filled on Sunday night. Fox News reported that his intention is to try to wrest one of their historical strongholds: New York, from the Democrats. Robert F. Kennedy, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (a corrupt figure to some and a martyr to others), Tulsi Gabbard, and political commentator Tucker Carlson are among the guests who opened the event while his family supported him from backstage. Perhaps the most impactful intervention was by David Rem, a childhood friend of the magnate, who delivered a thunderous speech with a crucifix in hand. The candidate is expected to make an appearance as this kind of grand conservative communion unfolds.

Thousands of people queued outside the iconic venue, where some protests against the Republican took place. No one stayed overnight at Trump Tower. Not even to listen to Lee Greenwood's records. The veteran 82-year-old country singer is another guest at Madison, where his iconic 'God Bless The USA,' the anthem that helped America's emotional recovery after the 9/11 attacks, is sure to play. The atmosphere is euphoric; a central event or campaign finale, if you will. A spectacle.

Right now, time is running against the candidates. The data published by the latest American polls are as expected, but they still mark a milestone in the country's political history. The technical tie persists, and the slight differences recorded in key states fall within the margins of error of polling, preventing trend extraction. Both parties have their own secret studies, and for this week, they have commissioned a real avalanche of spot surveys, almost as if they were analyzing prime-time audience changes instead of electoral shifts.

It is true that since the elections between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale, which the Republican won comfortably, there have never been huge differences in presidential elections. But the current ones verge on the absurd: CNN's poll shows a tie between Harris and Trump at 47%-47%; the 'New York Times'/Siena College poll is at 48%-48%. 'The Wall Street Journal' establishes a slight advantage for Trump (47%) over Harris (45%).

All these results not only prevent predicting a winner on November 5th. They also do not allow reliable speculation about the future composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The entire institutional landscape is volatile. It is up in the air, and no one can predict what majorities will be in Congress or if the current ones will change. Not even if both Chambers and the White House will end up in the hands of a single party, opening four years of unusual governance.

Another poll published yesterday begins to show the consequences of this frenzied electoral dispute. The fear rhetoric, dissatisfaction with Joe Biden's government, misinformation, and the perseverance of a convicted leader like Trump have undermined American society's confidence in democracy.

45% of the population believes that the current democracy does not adequately represent the citizenry, while 76% think it is threatened, according to 'The New York Times.' However, only 7% consider this when choosing a ballot. Partisanship, the economy, housing, health, migration, or social rights take precedence.

Possibly, four years of brutal political and social events, from the Capitol assault, the pandemic, the wars in Ukraine and Israel, economic difficulties, and misinformation movements to a radical and convicted former president who could be president again, weigh on the American conscience, weakening their confidence in the system.

The result is that a majority distrusts. They think Washington is given over to the corruption of pressure groups. That the will of the elites prevails over everything else. And that politicians focus their positions based on their own benefit. Amid this battle, there is a hopeful fact: 80% of the electorate trusts that the election results will be truthful.