Bayrou Survives Another No-Confidence Vote, Eases Political Crisis in France

French Prime Minister François Bayrou glimpses a small oasis amidst the political crisis in France: the veteran centrist leader overcame the second no-confidence vote of his term on Wednesday. The motion, presented by La France Insoumise (akin to Sumar or Podemos), supported by the Greens and Communists, garnered only 128 votes in favour, falling short of the absolute majority threshold (288) as it failed to secure backing from the Socialist Party (PS) or Marine Le Pen's far-right. By passing this test in the National Assembly, Bayrou not only secured the final adoption of this year's budget but also a minimal stability at the helm of the government.

The 2025 budget law "is the result of urgency, as our country cannot live without a budget," Bayrou defended. "We are at the beginning of a new stage," highlighted the premier, who had already faced a failed first motion on January 16, in response to his decision not to undergo a vote of confidence.

The head of the government faced two censure texts on Wednesday afternoon, after approving the public accounts and Social Security funding on Monday by invoking Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This controversial governmental decree allows a law to be adopted without a parliamentary vote — the budget would have been rejected in a classic vote — but allows the opposition to present a motion demanding the government's dismissal.

In December, the use of 49.3 and the budget debate had already cost the conservative Michel Barnier his position, Bayrou's predecessor. Two months later, the MoDem leader — one of the three parties in the Macronist alliance — has managed to approve a budget text similar to the previous one. While Barnier advocated for a reduction of around 40 billion euros in public spending, Bayrou has adopted accounts that entail a cut of 34.4 billion, an unprecedented slash in the last decade in France. His goal is to reduce the high deficit from 6.1% to 5.4% of GDP.

"You are responsible for the most austerity-driven budgets of the 21st century" in France, denounced insubordinate deputy Aurélie Trouvé in the chamber, who was in charge of presenting the motion. The president of the Economic Affairs Committee also criticised the increase in taxes on the self-employed. The accounts also include two special levies for the wealthiest families and companies, although they will only apply for one year. Despite the unpopularity of some of these measures, the risk of chronic instability weighed more among a significant portion of opposition deputies, who are the majority in a very fragmented Parliament.

"Despite this budget being unfair, it allows for the implementation of essential measures," such as an increase in military investments, highlighted far-right deputy Yoan Gillet. Unlike the PS, which announced on Monday that it would not support the censure, Marine Le Pen's National Rally kept the suspense and did not indicate until Wednesday that it would not back the motion. Besides harshly criticising the budget text, the Le Pen representative used his speech to highlight the division within the left.

Bayrou's strategy of prioritising negotiations with the Socialists, instead of the far-right as Barnier did, has proven to be a success for his interests. He has managed to get the rose party to distance itself from its insubordinate, green, and communist partners — these four formations composed the fragile coalition of the New Popular Front, which came first in the last elections — in exchange for rather modest concessions: a social table between unions and employers on pensions and a renunciation of the elimination of 4,000 teaching positions.

The Socialist leadership has reluctantly acknowledged the scarcity of that bounty. It has announced that it will push for another no-confidence motion next week against the government's migration policy, with very little chance of success. Once the budgetary test has been overcome, the head of the government has a rather clear horizon, at least until next summer when President Emmanuel Macron can call early elections again. Besides not losing his position at the first hurdle, Bayrou has secured a breath of fresh air for a weakened head of state.