Aston Martin does not expect a turnaround in Miami either

For the vast majority of Formula 1 fans, it is quite difficult to understand how Aston Martin has gone from being a team fighting for podiums to merely competing for points and ultimately trying not to finish last in just two years. This is not an exaggeration. In 2023, Fernando Alonso secured five podiums in the first six races, in 2024 he scored points in those same six races but did not reach the podium, and so far in 2025, with the Miami weekend still to come, he has two retirements, a fifteenth, and two eleventh-place finishes.

It is somewhat of an achievement. It is possibly the biggest drop in performance in recent years over just two seasons, only comparable to McLaren's disastrous decision to return with Honda, culminating in their dark triennium during the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons. One has to look back to those times to see a worse start (by a small margin) for Alonso.

At nearly 44 years old, Alonso has more past than future. In Saudi Arabia, he admitted that his dream right now is to reach 2026, to see what they are capable of doing with the new regulations, and above all, to see if Adrian Newey has managed to conjure up another potentially championship-winning car to give the Asturian one last glorious dance. It would be a tale worthy of the greatest epics of classical literature: the hero who conquered the world, fell from grace, and after undergoing a process of transformation, rises again glorified in his full maturity.

But real life, and here professional sport comes into play beyond the epic of sports chronicles, tends to be much more mundane. If Aston Martin fails to find a way to improve their performance soon, they will not have a solid foundation for 2026. Newey is a genius beyond doubt, but he is not a guarantee that he will be the philosopher's stone that turns iron into gold. Without tools to make the 2026 project a winner, the engineer who made Red Bull champion with Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen will be a perfect Chinese vase in the megalomaniac dream managed by Lawrence Stroll with the money of Saudi autocrats.

Despite the fact that the Silverstone team is still in the midst of their blackout, there are certain reasons to think optimistically in the medium term. In mid-March, they completed - with some delay over the planned schedule - and put into operation the new wind tunnel at the brand-new Silverstone headquarters, which has allowed them to make a more accurate diagnosis of where, how, and why they are failing. Without going into too much detail, the AMR25 is practically all wrong, but according to Andy Cowell, head and CEO of the British team, thanks to the newly inaugurated tunnel, they have been able to have "a more representative and clearer view of what is happening" with the car.

The Miami event, therefore, presents itself as another weekend of suffering. Until the big circus lands in Europe, which will happen in two weeks in Imola, neither Fernando Alonso nor Lance Stroll - who remains the team leader in the overall standings with the 10 points he somehow managed to collect in the first races of the year - can aim for much more than scraping some points with a lot of luck. This weekend, moreover, is contested under the sprint format, which may present a double opportunity to achieve something. The short race on Saturday, which Alonso has hated from the start and has criticized openly since its implementation, is an opportunity for him to avoid embarrassment in case of incidents at the top. Looking ahead to Sunday, on a track with walls like this one, they might also achieve something.

Much higher up than Aston Martin, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris will likely be fighting for victory. After what has been seen in the first races of the year, it is clear that the positions of leader and second driver are not fixed at McLaren. Logic suggests it should be the Australian, who has three victories to the Briton's one and leads the championship. However, if McLaren's history has shown anything, it is that they do not handle these situations well. Team orders at McLaren could tip the balance one way or the other, but they will have to be precise: Verstappen, who is already on the verge of becoming a father with Kelly Piquet, is lurking.

On paper, Norris has the upper hand. It was in Miami 2024 when he achieved his first Formula 1 victory, and he will want to repeat it a year later. The problem is that his main rival is at home.