Alcaraz Poised to Claim World Number One by Year-End

Jannik Sinner ended his match against Tallon Griekspoor in Shanghai with severe cramps. He could barely walk, supported by his racket and assisted by the ATP doctor to his chair, before retiring and conceding victory to the Dutchman. This setback cost the Italian 950 points, as he was defending last year's title in the Chinese city, leaving Carlos Alcaraz with the opportunity to become the world number one by the end of the year.

The Spaniard is on the verge of repeating his 2022 feat and finishing the season as the top-ranked player, equalling Stefan Edberg, Lleyton Hewitt, and Bjorn Borg, who also achieved this twice in their careers. With Sinner's participation in Shanghai concluded, where Alcaraz did not compete due to ankle discomfort from his Tokyo victory, the Spaniard holds a 1,340-point lead in the rankings.

Both players will return to the courts next weekend at the Six Kings Slam exhibition in Saudi Arabia, where, although no ranking points are at stake, a substantial prize is on offer. Just for participating, they will earn €1.2 million, and if they win the tournament, they will receive an additional €3.8 million.

Afterwards, Sinner will return to competition in Vienna, a tournament offering 500 points, where he did not play last year. This allows him to add 500 points in a week when Alcaraz has no scheduled events. In the best-case scenario for the Italian, the gap after the Austrian tournament will be 840 points.

From there, only two events remain on the calendar: the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000 and the ATP Finals. Alcaraz will defend 100 points in the French capital, from the two matches he won in 2024, and 200 in Turin, having secured a group stage victory last year, while Sinner did not play in Paris-Bercy and earned 1,500 points as an undefeated winner at the Masters Cup.

Therefore, Alcaraz needs to accumulate 470 points between these two tournaments to ensure he finishes the year as the best. The scenarios vary, but the most straightforward would be reaching the final in Paris-Bercy. With that, the Spaniard would secure the number one trophy, which he could even receive in Turin, as he did in 2022, when he became the youngest world number one in history.

Moreover, both Paris-Bercy and the ATP Finals are among the major titles missing from Alcaraz's collection, which already includes three of the four Grand Slams—only Australia remains—and six of the nine Masters 1000—besides Paris, he lacks Shanghai and Canada. The Davis Cup, in which he will participate in November with Spain, is another significant title his collection yearns for.