How Aemet's Weather Alerts Operate

The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has responded to the statements made by the President of the Valencian Government, Carlos Mazón, this Friday during his appearance in Les Corts to explain the management of the DANA. The head of the Consell stated that "Aemet's forecast, as stated in its official report sent to Emergencies at 07:36 in the morning, establishes a probability of rain with a maximum of 70% in different areas of the province of Valencia and a maximum precipitation of 180 l/m2 in 12 hours."

Aemet has emphasized that in the mentioned report - valid until 00:00 on October 30 - there is no reference to a maximum precipitation, as these documents always reflect thresholds that can be reached or exceeded. In other words, a quantity indicating a threshold that could be surpassed but not a maximum level of rain, according to sources from this public body. Furthermore, in a subsequent bulletin, sent at 09:41, the red alert was extended to almost the entire province of Valencia, specifically mentioning a threshold of 180 l/m2.

In the same meteorological report, a clarifying note was included stating that, additionally, this accumulation could occur within a period of two or three hours, forecasts that led Aemet to activate the red alert for rain, according to sources from the entity.

The MeteoAlert Plan of Aemet at the national level differentiates two zones: the Mediterranean and the rest of the Peninsula. In the former, where the Valencian Community is located, Aemet issues a yellow alert when forecasts exceed 60 mm in 12 hours; an orange alert when they surpass 100 mm, and a red alert with 180 mm. These thresholds are agreed upon with Civil Protection and are reviewed periodically.

The MeteoAlert Plan establishes that, upon activation of the red alert level, "the danger is extraordinary and vulnerable assets and populations in exposed areas could suffer very serious or catastrophic impacts." In this final state, it recommends that the population take preventive measures and act according to the authorities' instructions, stay informed of the most up-to-date weather forecast, and avoid travel unless strictly necessary.

Aemet emphasizes that its responsibility is limited to warning that the risk is extreme, while it is the authorities who must alert and have the competencies to manage emergencies.

At this point, sources from the State Meteorological Agency insist that the forecasts for October 29 were that 180 l/m2 could be reached or exceeded in 12 hours and, in some areas, in two or three hours.