Advantage or Trap in a Clash of Kings for Survival

Taking heed of statistics and considering the words of a cunning Pep Guardiola, who often dons a sheep's clothing in such encounters, Real Madrid would have every reason to smile before facing Manchester City in the resolution of the Champions League round of 16 playoff. The Chamartín side has overcome 37 of the 39 European knockout rounds where they faced the return leg at home after winning away in the first leg, and the Santpedor coach gave his team a meagre 1% chance of winning at the Santiago Bernabéu just four days after the 'sky blues' succumbed 2-3 to Carlo Ancelotti's squad at the Etihad. However, the whites must remain vigilant this Wednesday to engage in a clash of kings for survival.

The advantage Real Madrid secured a week ago at the 'cityzens' fortress with a stoppage-time goal from Bellingham could prove a trap for Carletto's squad. History, both distant and recent, attests to this. While it is true that they have only suffered two European disasters when facing the conclusion of a tie at home after previously winning away, the first at the hands of the modest Danish Odense in the third round of the 1994-95 UEFA Cup and the second against Ajax in the 2018-19 Champions League round of 16, the Chamartín side is much better equipped to complete heroic comebacks than to manage inheritances.

Last season, Leipzig demonstrated this by arriving at the Bernabéu with a one-goal disadvantage after Brahim's assault on the Red Bull Arena, threatening until the last moment the quarter-final passage of a squad that would eventually lift the Fifteenth at Wembley. Two seasons earlier, it was Chelsea who nearly overturned the merengue coliseum by reversing a quarter-final tie that Real Madrid seemed to have sealed with the 1-3 achieved at Stamford Bridge.

The scare orchestrated by the 'blues', which Rodrygo and Benzema calmed, strongly reminded of the one Juventus carried out in the 2017-18 Champions League quarter-finals when, after falling 0-3 in Turin, the Old Lady chilled the hearts of all Madridistas gathered at the Paseo de la Castellana temple by returning the favour to a team that sealed the qualification at the buzzer with a Benatia penalty on Lucas Vázquez, converted by Cristiano to avoid extra time. These are just some examples of a list that warns the locals.

The fifteen-time European king would make a grave mistake by underestimating a City they could have dismantled eight days ago in Manchester, but who will visit the Bernabéu revitalised. The 4-0 thrashing they achieved on Saturday against Newcastle has breathed life into a squad that is, however, still on the brink of an unprecedented disaster in the Guardiola era. Since the Catalan took the reins of City, the sky blues have always been among the top sixteen teams in the Champions League, and only once, in his first campaign, were they unable to surpass the round of 16, where their presence is now in jeopardy.

The path to the edge of the precipice is marked by an unusual defensive vulnerability that has led City to concede 63 goals, just three fewer than they received throughout the previous season. The bleeding in the top continental competition rises to 17 goals, three more than a Real Madrid also porous in defence. Stemming this wound is vital for the survival of a troop that has only won once in their six previous visits to the Bernabéu and arrives at the clash with the absences of Rodri and Akanji, but clings to Haaland's firepower, Marmoush's goal feast against Newcastle, and Nico González's return to the engine room to threaten a Real Madrid also fighting for their neck.

An elimination in the round of 16 would be a severe economic blow for Real Madrid and, above all, a sporting setback that would seriously jeopardise Ancelotti's future on the bench. The Italian regains defensive reinforcements with the return of Rüdiger, Alaba, and Lucas Vázquez. Although there is some fear of a relapse, Rambo is set to start to try to shackle the Viking Haaland. With Ceballos once again aiming for the midfield, the fantastic four in attack, and Valverde well-positioned to continue as right-back despite being slightly injured in the hamstrings during the visit to Pamplona, Carletto hinted that Tchouaméni could return to a pivot role, with Camavinga stepping out, keeping Asencio in the defensive axis.

Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Rüdiger, Mendy, Tchouaméni, Ceballos, Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius, and Mbappé.

Manchester City: Ederson, Lewis, Stones, Rúben Dias, Gvardiol, Nico González, Bernardo Silva, Foden, Savinho, Marmoush, and Haaland.

Referee: István Kovács (Romania).

Time: 21:00 h.

Stadium: Santiago Bernabéu.

TV: Movistar Liga de Campeones.